Abstract
This short paper will focus its discussion on how important the role of scenario planning in achieving sustainable energy management in Indonesia as well as how to ensure that scenario planning is implemented and not just words.
Introduction
Energy is a vital daily resource and one for which demand is growing rapidly as well as the single most important commodity for our survival and continuation of our society. Energy is also at the heart of most critical economic, environmental and developmental issues facing the world today. Since the dawn of history, we have generated the energy we need by burning hydrocarbons. Today, over 80% of all the energy that we consume still comes from the burning of hydrocarbons. Another consideration is the fact that half of the global population now live in urban areas, that natural resources are dwindling, and that climate change is one of the main challenges facing us today, it is clearly time to change the way we use energy – and to reduce our impact on the environment.
In line with that, clean, efficient, affordable and reliable energy services are indispensable for global prosperity. Developing countries in particular need to expand access to reliable and modern energy services if they are to reduce property and improve the health of their citizens while at the same time increasing productivity, enhancing competitiveness and promoting economic growth. Related to this condition, sustainable energy management is becomes a necessity that must be done. Sustainable energy management is a far-reaching concept that covers all phases of the sector – from fuels and their extraction, to energy generation and the systems’ efficiencies, energy distribution, and energy consumption (in terms of amount and efficiency), and energy security implications etc. Various stakeholders in a country face the challenge of evaluating the impact that these systems have on natural resources, biodiversity and people. They must make choices that minimize these negative impacts, within the context of their often limited budgets and legal responsibility.
However, is not easy to do sustainable energy management because a number of reasons. Sustainable energy management should not be conducted as an isolated operation. Many other systems depend on and interact with the energy system. Energy management is one of the layers of community management as a whole, and hence the principles of sustainability should ideally be applied in a cross-sectoral, integrated approach, beyond strictly energy themes.
Moreover, sustainability is great until we start comparing cost. Until we understand the physical limits on primary energy. The claim is made that the sustainability energy needs to be available for the day when we run out of oil and gas, but when will that day arrive? That’s why we need the scenario planning, but not only on paper and words, the most difficult is to start action.
Based on this background, this short paper will focus its discussion on how important the role of scenario planning in achieving sustainable energy management in Indonesia as well as how to ensure that scenario planning is implemented and not just words.
The Importance of Scenario Planning on Energy Policy and How to make It as Action and not just Words
The use of scenario planning in energy policy is very important to do and is commonly practiced. However, in the context of energy policy in Indonesia is still not done. Scenario planning can help in providing a roadmap or management of a comprehensive energy management, and others. Scenario can assists in promoting the utilization of energy resources in Indonesia, especially renewable energy. Scenario planning is a technique for making decisions in the face of uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty, offers energy policy makers a method for developing more resilient energy policies.
Through scenario planning, a systemic method is used for thinking creatively about possible complex and uncertain futures. The central idea of scenario planning is to consider a variety of possible futures that include many of the important uncertainties in the system rather than to focus on the accurate prediction of a single outcome.
In the author's view, some important things to be included in the scenario planning of energy policy in Indonesia so as to realize sustainable energy management are: (1) continue to research clean coal technology; (2) develop hydroelectric and geothermal power plant, solar, wind farms; (3) explore possible non petroleum liquid fuel by investing in research and development; (4) develop fischer tropsch processes for producing gasoline, diesel, and other fuel oils from coal, while limiting emissions; as well as (5) work on developing non petroleum sources for the non gasoline products we currently get from petroleum.
The author strongly believes that this plan should markedly reduce our dependence on oil and markedly reduce noxious vehicle emissions. However, by remembering that oil will run out and someday natural gas will also run out, uranium will run out. So to ensure that energy remains available for our grand children, the more important things to do is how to make the roadmap to be done through a series of policies and measures. We must let’s create things, doing things for sustainable energy, for sustainable living.
To make roadmap not just words but the actions, there are a number of steps that must begin to do, namely: research and development; cooperative studies with international universities and institutes of energy and environment; do a pilot project; as well as review the policies that are partial and associate it with some elements of transportation, industry, and other studies that can show us that there is need for integrated policies. In addition, there is need for political will from the government, parliament as well as sufficient understanding of the community. This needs to be done by considering that the energy security has even become an issue of particular significant to the ASEAN states as well as other regional. Energy supplies are clearly and directly link to geopolitics.
A strong political will and strong commitment in the context of Indonesia can be seen e.g. from the existence of the National Energy Board (NEB) that should immediately make recommendations to government on strategic steps that need to be taken. NEB that is chaired by the President must be endorser for the implementation of all scenario plans that have been matured.
Concretely, which must be done by government are: analysis of current issues (globally and domestic); carry out research and development, setting professional budget; develop roadmap that doable and achievable; and goodwill to implement the national interest
Analysis of current issues
During this time, energy problems more highlighted from the viewpoint of the environment. Domestic and international public protests related to the environmental impact of extraction of non-renewable energy resources accounted for a large part in any discourse energy problems. But the larger problem surrounding the management of energy, particularly energy management based on national interests in the long term is very rarely mentioned. For example how national strategies including the management of energy reserves to meet the energy needs of current and future within the framework of national resilience in the energy sector. In short, a comprehensive analysis of problems related to national energy management must consider all relevant aspects (environment, technology, etc.), and should be discussed within the current and future period.
Research and development
The problems that surfaced in the planning of all sectors (including the energy sector) in Indonesia are the lack of data and information that are accurate and reflect the real condition. Accuracy is not only about the number and reserve resources, but also includes the information about business activity in this sector. The various types and characteristics of energy resources and distribution locations owned resources from Sabang to Merauke are become the classical constraints in collecting data and information about energy. Moreover, amid the spirit of regional autonomy, the exercise of authority among regional governments often reflects the ego and autonomy euphoria that tends to misdirected. For example, in granting mining permits, regional governments often do not think or act in a professional and accountable in managing the authority possessed. Even under the pretext of authority granted by law, the government did not provide proper data and information to the central government as the main controller of national energy policy. Not to mention, the lack of government capabilities both in terms of scientific as well as adequate budgetary allocations for research and development funding. Therefore the cooperation with domestic and international research and development institutions became a necessity in mapping the reserves, needs and other energy-related.
Setting professional budget
The spirit of laws and regulations that exist today has providing a great responsibility to the government to manage the existing energy. Thus, to carry out these responsibilities, the government should provide allocations for various things related to energy management. For example in finding alternative energy, it is appropriate that the government allocate a portion of its budget for research and development activities. Professional budget is also strongly associated with the way of governments in developing strategies for meeting the energy needs of all citizens. Governments have to be smart in managing energy subsidy policy. Energy subsidies are no longer a political instrument even political imagery of rulers but rather the instruments to fulfill the right of citizens to obtain energy.
Develop roadmap that is doable and achievable
Energy policy is no longer needed in the form of a number of documents whose contents are perfect, but only adorn the walls of the cabinet of the decision-makers. Energy policy within the framework of sustainability is ideal in concept and execution level. In the macro level, energy policy should pay attention to national energy security and sustainability of energy resources itself. While in practical level, energy policy should be harmonized when in contact with other interests in the field, including the interests of businesses and communities. Thus, a complete roadmap accompanied by indicators of success, programs and action plans should be able to measure the real success rate not only at the level of output policy but also at the level of impact of policy.
Goodwill to implement the national interest
As good as any plans drawn up relating to the sustainability of energy, will not work when the actors—in these regard stakeholders—do not have the goodwill and political will into practice. Goodwill must be based on a passion for managing energy sustainably and not limited to the momentary interests. All relevant actors should be on the same level in the light that sustainable resource management aims to save the interests of the nation, and not in the interests of certain groups. Strong commitment to implement the policy agenda which has become the initial agreement must be realized consistently. Governments, politicians, businessmen, academics and the public must realize very well that if the revamping of the national energy management is not implemented immediately due to the destruction of bad governance (including the management of energy) may be (immediately) occurs.
Concluding Remarks
As closing remarks, it can be concluded that to realize sustainable energy management in Indonesia, it will takes scenario planning that is built from accurate data. Scenario planning is to be lowered in the form of energy management roadmap. The roadmap should include concrete measures to manage sustainable energy, and can be measured not only in terms of output but also in terms of impacts. Implementation of the strategic plan contained in the roadmap must be supported by a professional budgeting policy. However, the roadmap is as good as any, will not be able to run properly without the good will and political will from the government.
Moreover, sustainable energy needs to be done by advancing the following propositions:
- Rebound effects are significant and limit the potential for decoupling energy consumption from economic growth
- The contributions of energy to productivity improvement and economic growth has been greatly underestimated
- Sustainability requires both improved efficiency and a principle of 'sufficiency'
- Sustainability is incompatible with continued economic growth in rich countries
A sustainable economy needs to have much higher levels of energy and resources efficiency than exist today and policies to encourage this will have a crucial role to play.
The objective should be to channel the benefits of improved efficiency into low carbon energy supply and improved quality of life rather than further growth and increased consumption. Options includes green fiscal reform, progressive efficiency standard, caps on emission and resource use, support for low carbon technologies, measures to encourage flexible working arrangement and reduced working hours, redistribution of income etc. But such measures are likely to fail if the structural factors that make economies dependent upon contributed economic growth remain unaddressed. In particular, the fractional reserve banking system needs to be replaced with one more consistent with the goal of sustainability. It is hoped that this paper will at least stimulate some thinking and ideas in that direction.
To achieve this, there are a number of recommendations from the author to be done by government as soon as possible, namely: (1) government has to start delivering change immediately; and (2) what is the role of and between government and its relationship to regulators, markets, businesses and customers in enabling transition to a sustainable energy economy in a carbon constrained world.
References
European Commission, 2011, Guidelines for Sustainable Energy Management: Based on the Sesac Project Experience, European Commission
European Union Energy Initiative (EUEI), 2011, Biomass Energy Strategy (BET) Guide for Policy-Makers and Energy Planners, EUEI
Gallman, Philip G, 2011, Green Alternatives and National Energy Strategy: The Facts behind the Headlines, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press
Lugg Amy and Mark Hong (Editors), 2010, Energy Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
Sorrell, Steven, 2010, "Energy, Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability: Five Propositions", Sustainability, Vol. 2